Overview
The BowTied BetPicks Premium Service is a data feed with instant notifications for [& derived bets from] informative price drops at sharp exchanges/bookmakers.
To fully appreciate the overview below, a basic understanding of betting and betting markets is recommended. Such an understanding can for example be acquired by reading our introductory Betting 101.
A notification from the UK Horse Racing Channel.
Key Idea
This is a high level overview of the service. For more details, please refer to the Frequently Asked Questions.
While commonly stated otherwise, there are many ways to beat the bookies & the house doesn't "always win". An excellent example is bonus rugging, a concept that has been handled extensively by us before. Another one is what forms the basis for the BowTied BetPicks Premium Service, namely the act of monitoring what clever market actors are doing in order to use their information to beat less sophisticated market participants [in this case standard/retail bookmakers].
To execute on this, we've built bots that monitor the order flow & betting action at places such as Betfair, Pinnacle & Circa, i.e. platforms that for one or multiple reasons are known to attract intelligent customers. Then, when prices move at those places, our bots immediately observe the price moves, interpret them, and, in case of them passing our filters, push them to the BowTied BetPicks Telegram Channels.
Under the assumption that the price moves are *informative* [the gambler/s behind the move possess information that was not correctly incorporated in the previous market odds/price], we are now in a great position to visit our favourite bookmaker/s and pick them off in case they've been slow to react. [The event of a bookie lagging like this is, for several reasons, a frequently observed phenomenon.]
Example: Our Betfair Bot scans the Betfair Horse Racing markets.
During an afternoon, the odds on Coolangatta drops from 7.50 to 5.70 within a span of 3 minutes.
Meanwhile, Unibet remains at 6.50, which means that we've successfully identified a ~14 % +EV/edge bet, and so we bet ~$900 on the horse to win at Unibet, which translates into an expected value of $126.
Note: In case we'd prefer evading the inherent randomness of the bet and instead lock in our profits, we are of course free to hedge the bet at Betfair or any other exchange of our choice and thus complete a pure arbitrage. Hedging at 5.80 yields a locked in profit of ~$120, no matter the outcome of the race.
There are several channels available & a subscription gives you access to *all* of them.
BowTied BetPicks [UK] - Alerts for UK horse racing with links & price info from UK bookmakers.
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BowTied BetPicks [US] - Alerts for NHL, NBA, NFL, MLS, MLB & College Sports markets. Price information from a great collection of US bookies.
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BowTied BetPicks [SPAIN] - Alerts for UK horse racing with links & price info from Spanish bookies.
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BowTied BetPicks [SWEDEN] - Alerts for both UK & AUS horse racing with links & price info from Swedish bookies.
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BowTied BetPicks [AUSTRALIA] - Alerts for both AUS & UK horse racing with links & price info from Australian bookmakers. Note that minimum bet laws [MBL's] apply in Australia, effectively forcing Aussie bookies to take customer action up to "$2K to win" per outcome, i.e. providing an amazing environment for this kind of strategy.
So how do I actually make money from this?
The recipe is trivial:
(1) Register with/get yourself a couple of sportsbook accounts with bookies offering odds on any of the markets mentioned above, for instance Bet365, Unibet, ESPN Bet & DraftKings.
(2) Await an odds notification & in case it appears to be a 'good enough' opportunity, head over to the bookie offering the best odds and place the bet.
(3) Repeat until the bookmakers ban/limit your accounts. If you're from Australia & betting the horses this won't happen [as a result of MBLs] & unless something unexpected comes along you should be able to continue placing bets more or less indefinitely.
(4) Start over at (1).
Note: Tons of ways to fool the bookies into *delaying* the inevitable ban/limit [no +EV bettor will ever be allowed infinite action at a soft book]. Subscribers are welcome to get in touch with us for more info on account longevity.
Here's a preview of what a morning in the UK Horse Racing Channel may look like.
If you cannot see the value, you're blind.
Interpreting a Horse Racing alert
Horse Racing alerts consist of the following information:
Event Information: Date, track and post time.
Horse Name & Percentage Drop: Self-explanatory.
Previous Price: The reference point from which the detected percentage decrease occurred.
Current Price: Current price at the Exchange.
Note: Both previous price and current price are mid-prices, i.e. averages of the best back and lay offers.
Total matched on race: The amount of money that has been matched [two bettors have agreed on a bet] on the specific race. A large volume may act as an indication of greater levels of certainty in price estimates, while a smaller one can be a warning to proceed with caution when "learning" from the price moves.
Spread: Difference between the best back and lay offers, measured as a percentage of the current price.
Liquidity within a +15 % range: Amount of *back* liquidity that is available on the specific outcome within a 15 % odds range from the current price. Serves as a proxy for the level of confidence in price estimates, i.e. large values are preferable to smaller ones.
Example: Gainsbourg trades at 3.05. Within the odds range 3.05 - 3.50 [ 3.05 x 1.15] there's a total of 2246 GBP available in back offers. Thus, 2246 GPB gets reported by the Bot.
Note that only back offers are considered here. If lay offers were included, a large lay order, perhaps at 2.98, could misleadingly foster false assurance in the price from a backer's point of view [we'll be backers at our respective bookies] while actually signifying the contrary in reality [that the price is more likely to move in the wrong direction, up in this case].
Current bookmaker prices: A list containing available prices for the given outcome combined with links to a variety of popular sportsbooks. EV measures [expected value, under the assumption that current price = true price] for the selections & indicative green/yellow/red circles are provided as well.
The circles are green if EV > 10 %, yellow if EV in [0, 10 %] & red if -EV.
Interpreting a Sports Market alert
Sports alerts consist of the following information:
Event Information: Date, league and scheduled start time.
Home team v Away team: Self-explanatory.
Market: Provided to help you navigate the sportsbooks & find the selections faster. Example: Player Rebounds, Player Shots On Goal.
Selection & Percentage Drop: The chosen side for the bet [e.g. Over 4.5] & the reference point from which the detected percentage decrease occurred.
Source: The source book [where the odds drop was observed]. Examples: Pinnacle, Betfair, Circa, Betcris.
Current Price: Current price at the Source Book.
Current bookmaker prices: A list containing available prices for the given outcome from a variety of popular sportsbooks. EV measures [expected value, under the assumption that current price = true price] for the selections & indicative green/yellow/red circles are provided as well.
The circles are green if EV > 10 %, yellow if EV in [0, 10 %] & red if -EV.
A Player Prop example from the US Channel.
An interesting Moneyline opportunity generated by the US Bot.
Practical information
As soon as you've signed up to the Premium Service you'll automatically be invited to the different BowTied BetPicks Telegram Channels. This is where you will receive the notifications from our bots.
Our Telegram Bot is programmed to assist you with common inquiries. Please consult the bot for sign-ups, subscription information and unsubscriptions. Use /commands in your Telegram chat with the bot to obtain a full list of what the bot is able to handle.
Finally, join the Discord server & discuss anything concerning the service in the #betpicks channel.
Best of luck, Anon!
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.